Migration as a Cause and Effect of Climate Vulnerability: The Dual Complexities of Rural-Urban Migration
- Post by: Arjun Kumar
- July 29, 2025
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Srinidhi Kavirayani[1]
[1] MA Public Policy and Governance (2024-26), TATA Institute of Social Sciences, Hyderabad
Linkedin- https://www.linkedin.com/in/srinidhi-kavirayani-a962351b9/
| Title: | Migration as a Cause and Effect of Climate Vulnerability: The Dual Complexities of Rural-Urban Migration |
| Author(s): | Srinidhi Kavirayani |
| Keywords: | Urban migration, climate change, climate vulnerability, livelihoods |
| Issue Date: | 25 July 2025 |
| Publisher: | IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute |
| Abstract: | This analytical brief deals with the issues of climate vulnerability in the context of massive and historically unprecedented rates of urban migration in India and the developing world. As per United Nations projections, there will be almost 5 billion urban dwellers by the year 2030. Given the sheer magnitude of the migration patterns, it becomes necessary to investigate the cause of such a movement of people from rural to urban. Further, it is imperative to also study the outcomes of the drastic migration to the cities. In this pursuit, this brief examines the relationship between climate change and rural-urban migration through an extensive literature review. It posits that climate vulnerabilities in rural areas are one of the causes of the massive migratory movement of people in India and other developing countries. Destruction of habitat, erosion of natural resources, and erratic and unpredictable monsoons diminish life chances for the rural poor. The paper analyses these vulnerabilities through the axis of livelihood opportunities and argues that in order to maximize the opportunities, migration to cities becomes a seemingly lucrative option for the climate-affected rural poor. Finally, the paper scrutinizes the conditions of the rural migrants in the cities, employing the lens of livelihood opportunities again. The exacerbating effects of migration on the city-climate are studied to understand its impact on the urban poor, which is mainly constituted by migrants. |
| Page(s): | 96-105 |
| URL: | https://iprr.impriindia.com/migration-as-a-cause-and-effect-of-climate-vulnerability-the-dual-complexities-of-rural-urban-migration/ |
| ISSN: | 2583-3464 (Online) |
| PDF Link: | https://iprr.impriindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/YV2-Migration-as-a-Cause-and-Effect-of-Climate-Vulnerability-IPRR-V4I1-Jan-June-2025.pdf |
(January-June 2025) Volume 4, Issue 1 | 25th July 2024
ISSN: 2583-3464 (Online)
. Introduction: Migratory Movement from the Rural to the Urban
The urban population across the world is rising steadily by overtaking the rural population (Figure 1). A large part of the increasing urban population is said to be driven by migration from rural areas, especially in developing countries. As per United Nations projections, there will be almost 5 billion urban dwellers by the year 2030. Asia and Africa are projected to host a large share of these urban dwellers, according to UN reports (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division & Menozzi, 2020).
The sheer magnitude of the unprecedented movement of people from rural to urban areas is a matter of concern and serious study. As a direct consequence, cities are expanding in terms of population at exponential rates. The cities in the developing world are growing at exceptionally higher rates, as seen in Figure 2. Delhi is projected to be one of the first countries to cross the 40 million mark by 2035 (Figure 2).
India, too, is witnessing increasing rural-urban migration patterns. Figure 3 graphically represents the rural-urban migration in absolute numbers in the origin states, that is, for the states from which the people have migrated. The highest number of out-migrants has been observed in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with more than one crore rural migrants moving to the cities.
Figure 1: Number of people living in urban and rural areas, World.
Figure 2: Population of the world’s largest cities, 1950 to 2035
Figure 3: State-wise out-migration to urban areas from rural areas in origin states, Census 2011
Added to the concerns of population rise and urban migration is the climate crisis faced across the world. It is in this context that this analytical brief studies the effect of climate change on rural-urban migration patterns in India and further examines the consequences of such migration on the climate of the cities. The brief aims to capture the climate-related push factors driving migration in India and thereby study the impact of migration on the climate. The line of argument presented in the brief is that urban migration is caused by climate challenges in the villages, and it is simultaneously also a cause of the climate crisis in the cities, thus making urban migration a cause and effect of climate vulnerability.
The analytical brief is arranged into five sections after the introduction. The first section details the methodology employed for the work in this paper and provides the rationale for the analytical frame chosen. The second section discusses the broad reasons for rural-urban migration in India using the Census 2011 data and then specifically focuses on the climate-induced vulnerabilities in rural areas that influence urban migration. The third section moves to the climate crisis faced by migrants in urban areas and discusses the exacerbated climatic conditions and stresses in urban India due to migration. Policy options for climate change resistance in urban and rural areas are discussed in the fourth section, followed by a concluding section towards the end.
2. Methodology
For the purpose of the brief, data have been sourced from the Census of India 2011 to show the rural-urban migration trends in India. The brief conducts a comprehensive literature review spanning across India and other developing countries to piece together evidence about the relationship between climate change and migration. The literature is reviewed thematically and is analyzed using the climate vulnerability framework.
The analytical framework employed looks at people’s climate vulnerability in terms of livelihood opportunities. The concept of climate vulnerability, as established in academic discourse, is considered in terms of the effects of climate change on people. Vulnerability research has aimed to understand where, why and how human systems are affected by climate change ( McDowell et al., 2016 as cited in Ford et al., 2018).
3. The Push Factors: Climate Vulnerabilities in Rural India
Figure 4: Reasons for rural-urban migration in destination states as per Census 2011
3.1 Reasons for rural-urban migration as per Census 2011
Census 2011 measures five particular categories of reasons for migration- work or employment, business, education, marriage and others. As per this data, most states in India report marriages as the major reason for migration to cities. Also noteworthy is that work- or employment-related migration is the next most highly reported reason, albeit at different proportions in each state. Therefore, apart from marriages, work is an important driver of migration across all Indian states.
3.2 Development Economics models for migration
Development economics theory explains migration using concepts of marginal productivity of labor and supply of labor in rural and urban areas of a country. Fei and Ranis (1961), in their seminal work on migration, explained that rapid internal migration is a desirable process, where the surplus labor from agriculture-based rural areas with zero marginal productivity moves to modern industrial cities, where their marginal productivity is greater than zero. Such a transition is essential to escape the middle-income poverty trap that many developing countries face (Kohli et al., 2011 as cited in Jha et al., 2017). Harris and Todaro’s (1970) model of economic development postulates that migration to urban areas is based on the expected income differential between rural and urban areas.
However, new research suggests that migration is not just about poverty and deprivation; it can also be caused by climate change (Jha et al., 2017). Migration is also related to economic incentives in the form of increased employment opportunities, diversification of income sources and the value of the crop at home. Climate change thus becomes a key push factor in rural-urban migration, altering livelihood opportunities and income generation capacities.
| Figure 5:Infographic on extreme weather events in India in 2024 |
| Source 1: Down to Earth |
3.3 The Climate Change Factor
The economic effects of climate change on agriculture drive migration in villages. Agriculture-based livelihoods are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Unpredictable monsoons and erratic weather make agriculture an extremely risky gamble. Climate shocks on food insecurity, that is, on the availability of, access to, safe and healthy food, also link migration with agriculture (Falco et al., 2018). A 2009 study in Odisha collected data on the pull and push factors of rural-urban migration and found that the foremost push factor was poverty caused by factors like the lack of assets and climate change hazards(Velan and Mohanty, n.d).
Climate data on the Down To Earth website (Figure 5) sounds alarming, highlighting the magnitude of human deaths, crop damage, property destruction, and animal deaths due to extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are characterized by heavy rains, floods, landslides, heatwaves and other natural phenomena occurring out of season. In 2024 alone, more than 40 Lakh hectares of crop land were affected due to the extreme weather events, causing serious concerns over the livelihoods of people dependent on crops. Therefore, climate vulnerability becomes a crucial push factor driving rural-urban migration due to a direct effect on livelihoods.
4. Urban Climate Challenges
Migration enhances the capacity of households to cope with climate change through the contribution of remittances and diversified income sources, and thus mitigates the negative effects of climate change. However, migration could also exacerbate climate vulnerabilities in cities, increasing the pressure on natural resources and the climate in cities (Falco et al., 2018). This section would analyze the livelihood risks faced by rural migrants in cities due to climate vulnerabilities.
Figure 6: State-wise in-migration to urban areas from rural areas in destination states, Census 2011
Figure 6 shows the incoming rural migrant populations in the cities of the destination states as per the Census 2011. Maharashtrian cities have seen an influx of 3.8 crores of people from rural areas across India in 2011.
Rural-urban migrants in Gujarat number around 2.2 Crores and in erstwhile combined Andhra Pradesh around 1.9 Crores.
4.1 Drivers of climate injustice in cities
Research on rural migrants suggests that they face climate injustice in the cities they move to. According to Chu and Michael (2018), there are four major drivers of climate injustice in cities. Broken political and social networks are one of the factors as migrants transition into a new political and social environment in the cities. As a result of their migration, the local citizenship rights of the migrants are not recognized, which is the second factor. The third factor is conflict within communities based on gender, caste, class, religion and ethnic divisions. The fourth factor is heightened exposure to environmental risks due to failure in securing livelihood opportunities.
4.2 Outcomes of urban migration
A study on rural-urban migration outcomes in Gulbarga and Kolar districts of Karnataka shows that migrants report an improvement in material well-being but lower subjective well-being due to poor working conditions and adverse health impacts despite an increase in wages (Singh and Basu, 2019). It is in this context that climate change in cities exacerbates the vulnerabilities of the rural migrants. Megacities in developing countries are the most affected by climate impacts and climate-induced migration as their physical, social and regulatory infrastructure is typically insufficient to address these emergent issues (DePaul, 2012). There is an overwhelming burden on cities to provide for a large number of people in terms of housing, public transport, basic infrastructure, health care and sanitation services. The lack of institutionalized provisions of basic public services adds to climate stressors in the city.
4.3 Climate challenges and stressors in the city
Poor city planning and management have contributed to serious environmental concerns such as the urban heat-island effect, extreme levels of pollution and rising sea levels in the coastal areas (DePaul, 2012). These climate stressors directly influence livelihood opportunities for urban populations and disproportionately so for rural migrants. As highlighted previously, the lack of their local citizenship rights, coupled with a lack of political and social networks, makes the position of the migrants extremely precarious. They are systemically excluded from local public services that are provided only to those with proof of address within a certain jurisdiction. The free public transport scheme for women introduced in Telangana is an example of such an exclusion. Women passengers are required to show a Telangana address Aadhar Card to avail themselves of the scheme, thus excluding many migrant women who may require this assistance for travelling to the workplace or schools.
Newer research, therefore, looks at migration to cities not just as a positive adaptation strategy for climate change-affected rural citizens but also as a climate change issue in itself that is a result of maladaptive coping practices of rural-urban migration. Climate vulnerability in terms of livelihood persists as a concerning issue in cities too, albeit in a largely different social and political setting as compared to the villages. The meagre income of poor migrants does not suffice to provide housing, health, and education in cities, especially when local governments fail to include migrants as beneficiaries of these services.
5. Mitigation Strategies and Policy Options
The identified concerns due to climate change in both rural and urban sectors reiterate an urgent need to address and mitigate these rising challenges. This section on mitigation strategies and policy options searches through existing literature for mitigating climate vulnerabilities in cities and villages to secure livelihoods.
5.1 Strengthening rural livelihoods
As the reason for migrating originates in the lack of income-generation opportunities in the villages, targeted schemes to provide livelihood opportunities in rural areas would be a viable policy option (Singh and Rahman, 2018, as cited in Singh and Basu, 2019). The study conducted by Singh and Basu (2019) points out that migration is often the last resort people typically choose when livelihood options in their village are exhausted. Therefore, strengthening institutions to protect and diversify village-based livelihoods is an important step to avoid pushing out lower ‘environmental capital’ households. Such a move then implies the protection of natural resources and ensuring their equitable usage.
5.2 Social protection for the rural poor
Jha et al. (2017) suggest that focus should be put on developing a nexus between risk reduction, development and capacity building in rural areas. Creation of non-climate sensitive livelihood options could be considered, which can diversify household income, in addition to the farm income. Risk reduction could be ensured through the provision of social protection policies that act as a safety net when the market fails to provide for the rural poor. Capacity building, especially for the rural youth, in non-farm income-generating skills, is essential in order to diversify the sources of income in a largely agriculture-dependent area.
5.3 A comprehensive integrated migrant assistance scheme
A migrant support program has been proposed by Selod and Shilpi(2021), which includes training for job search, assistance in destination community building, provision of insurance and dissemination of information about job and housing opportunities. An integrated support program would handhold migrants into making an informed decision and would also protect the migrants from potential economic shocks post-migration. The program is expected to rely on the existing diaspora to help the newer migrants with job and house search, along with accessing public services.
A crucial policy gap identified using the literature is the systemic denial of local citizenship-related benefits to the migrants. The migrants have often been invisibilized for the benefits of urban development and therefore continue to be marginalized in the cities. There is an immediate need to acknowledge and recognize migrants as beneficiaries of local schemes and policies by the state apparatus (Chu and Michael, 2018).
6. Conclusion
This analytical brief provides a two-fold argument: that climate vulnerability is a cause of urban migration in rural areas and that the said migration causes further vulnerability in urban areas. Migration patterns in India have shown rising trends, and the literature lists down employment and work-related reasons as of prime importance. Based on the livelihood capacity framework, this brief looks at the vulnerabilities caused and raised due to migration. Analysis on the climate challenges in rural and urban areas is followed by discussions on policy options to mitigate the identified concerns.
References
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