Estimation of Regional Economic Accounts at the City Level: Studying the Case of City GDP for Thane

Arjun Kumar[1] Sameer Unhale[2], Soumyadip Chattopadhyay[3], and Anshula Mehta[4]


[1] Director IMPRI

[2] Joint Commissioner, Department of Municipal Administration, Government of Maharashtra; Urban Practitioner; Visiting Senior Fellow, IMPRI

[3] Associate Professor Professor at the Department of Economics and Politics, Visva Bharati University and Visiting Senior Fellow, IMPRI

[4] Researcher, IMPRI


Title: Estimation of Regional Economic Accounts at the City Level: Studying the Case of City GDP for Thane
Author(s):Arjun Kumar, Sameer Unhale, Soumyadip Chattopadhyay, and Anshula Mehta
Keywords:Smart Cities Mission, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Urban Governance, Swachh Survekshan, Ease of Living Index, City-level Economic Planning
Issue Date:21 February 2024
Publisher:IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute
Abstract:Urban transformation programs in India like the Smart Cities Mission demonstrate the volition to solve urban challenges. Parameters like the city-level Ease of Living Index and Swachh Survekshan have recently been introduced to demonstrate best practices and infuse competition among the cities. However, the most important economic measure and the yardstick of income known as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at the city level is missing from the literature and the policy discourse in India and non-Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Having over one-third of the total population that contributes to over half of the GDP of India, cities need proper planning and execution for their comprehensive economic development. For this, it becomes essential to explore approaches to estimate GDP at the city level in India. This study reviews the literature on regional economic analysis for cities in the context of non-OECD countries and India. Further, a review of existing methodologies for estimating city-level GDP has been carried out to devise an estimation procedure for the GDP of Thane City using possible methods. This paper discusses key observations of the estimation, details a way forward for the measurement of city-level GDP in India by examining the scope for replicability for other cities and recommends the collection and maintenance of specific data to institutionalise this calculation. This paper draws attention to the gaps in the availability, regularity, granularity and credibility of data systems and makes a clarion call for a reliable, comprehensive and multi-dimensional statistical architecture in India.
Page(s):49-71
URL:https://iprr.impriindia.com/estimation-regional-economic-accounts-city-gdp-for-thane/
ISSN:2583-3464 (Online)
Appears in Collections:IPRR Vol. 2 (2) [July-December 2023]
PDF Link:https://iprr.impriindia.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/SA1_Estimation-of-Regional-Economic-Accounts-at-the-City-Level_IPRR_V2I2_July-December-2023.pdf

(July-December 2023) Volume 2, Issue 2 | 21st February 2024
ISSN: 2583-3464 (Online)


Background, Review of Literature and Motivation

Rapidly expanding urbanisation around the world has brought a renewed focus on the cities. This has received detailed attention from the United Nations when it launched the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015. It was further reiterated by the United Nations Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development, 2016 (Habitat III), Smart Cities, World Urban Campaign. Closely aligned with SDG 11 (sustainable cities and communities), India, being a signatory to the SDGs, launched its Smart Cities Mission in 2015 and urban transformation programs like Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana– Urban (PMAY-U), National Urban Livelihoods Mission (NULM) and Swachh Bharat Mission (Urban) (SBM-U). To instil competitiveness among cities, measures like the ranking of select cities in the Swachh Survekshan and Ease of Living Index prepared by the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) have also been undertaken. While each of these programs for the cities is important and demonstrates the volition to solve the urban challenges, there has been no such initiative that captures the city-level economic parameters nor the methodologies that could be adopted in this process. The most important economic measure of GDP or income is missing from the literature. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is one of the most important and standard economic measures which quantifies the value of production of goods and services in any geographical region in a year.

In contrast, the member states of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have a dedicated database of regional economic measures and generate the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Metropolitan areas other than federal states, by industries. Some global organizations like PWC (2008), McKinsey (2010) and Brookings (2014) have ranked cities across the world based on their economic strength. Their methodology rests on the OECD data and extrapolates the available reliable estimates for the cities in the non-OECD countries. However it must be pointed out that even the above studies do not account for the GDP measurements at the city levels. Given the above background that evidences an embossed gap in the economic methods pursued for cities, it becomes pertinent to explore approaches to estimate the economic measures at the city level. There are inputs that some estimations of city-level GDP have been done for Indian cities such as Mumbai, Ahmedabad and Kolkata, however, the information pertaining to the same is not available in the public domain.

This paper thoroughly reviews the literature and databases on regional economic analysis for cities, especially in the context of non-OECD countries and India. It is primarily built upon the papers “Calculating City-level GDP in India: An Assessment of Methodologies and an Evaluation of Feasibility” (The Economist Intelligence Unit, 2018) and “Consultation Paper on City GDP Measurement Framework”  (Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, 2019) [referred to as “Consultation Paper” henceforth].

Based on the review of literature, consultations, and discussions, the study explores and formulates feasible methods for estimating city-level GDP in India and Thane. It also suggests other alternative and innovative methods that capture industry-wise activities across the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Economic profile, spatial mapping of amenities and economic participation in Thane also form a component of this study. This research study exercise supports the ongoing focus on urban and regional economic growth and strengthens the evidence-based growth in India and non-OECD countries. In particular, the objectives of the study are to assess various methods and databases for estimating GDP at the city level and measuring the GDP of Thane city and analysing the results in recent years and suggesting a way forward.

Database

In order to explore methods of statistical measurement for estimating city-level GDP in India in general and for Thane city in particular, this research study has been based on a review of secondary official databases. Data sources utilised in this study are given below (Table 1).

Name of the ReportYear PublishedStudy YearOrganisation/Person
1Economic Characteristics of Unincorporated Non-Agricultural Enterprises (excluding Construction) in India: NSS 67th Round, July 2010-June 201120122010-11National Sample Survey Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
2A Report on Unincorporated Non-Agricultural Enterprises (Excluding Construction) Based on Data Collected in State Sample: 67th Round of National Sample Survey (July 2010 – June 2011) Vol. I20132010-11Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra
3Employment and Unemployment Situation in India: NSS 68th Round, July 2011-June 201220142011-12National Sample Survey Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
4Census of India (Houselisting and Population, Housing) 2011Office of the Registrar General of India and Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs
5District Census Handbook Thane: Village and Town Directory20142011Directorate of Census Operations, Maharashtra
6District Census Handbook Thane: Village and Townwise Primary Census Abstract20142011Directorate of Census Operations, Maharashtra
7A Report On ‘Employment and Unemployment Situation’
Based On Data Collected in State Sample Of 68th Round Of National Sample Survey (July 2011 – June 2012) Volume I
20142011-12Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra
8A Report on Unincorporated Non-Agricultural Enterprises (Excluding Construction) Based on Data Collected in Central, State and Pooled Samples of 67th Round of National Sample Survey20162010-11Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra
9Employment and Unemployment Situation in Cities and Towns in India: NSS 68th Round, July 2011-June 201220162011-12National Sample Survey Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
10Report on Sixth Economic Census Maharashtra State20162013-14Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra
11Report on Pooling of Central and State Sample Data: 68th Round of NSS Employment and Unemployment20172011-12Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra
12Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2018-1920192018-19Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra
Table 1: Data Sources

Apart from the above datasets, for estimating the rural and urban income at the state level, additional datasets are required as suggested by the National Accounts Statistics for their methodology at the national level, in the document National Accounts Statistics: Sources and Methods 2012, CSO, MoSPI, GoI (Chapter 31 Estimation of Rural and Urban Income, 2004-05) (Annexe Table 1).

Methodology

This paper attempts to build an economic profile of Thane city from the data sources listed above, along with spatial mapping at the ward level of Thane city.

The various methods of estimation of Gross City Domestic Product (GCDP) are:

  1. Apportioning based on population
  2. Apportioning based on sectoral employment
  3. Using Gross Value Added Per Worker (GVAPW) and Number of Workers by NIC Categories
  4. Urban Maharashtra (UM) + Labour Input (LI) Method
  5. Thane City (TC) + LI Method

The first three methods are simple estimations based on available aggregated data and quick calculations. However, this study focuses on granular-level unit record data from NSS and other official information.

Therefore, it broadly utilises methods 4 and 5, i.e., the method also proposed by the Consultation Paper, with minor additional elements. The steps for this method are detailed below:

Step 1: Listing Maharashtra’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) by Compilation          
            Categories (See Table 2)

Step 2: Estimating Rural and Urban GSDP for Maharashtra

Method 1: LI Method (using NSS ES 2010-11[1] and NSS EUS 2011-12[2])


[1] National Sample Survey 67th Round Enterprise Survey 2010-11

[2] National Sample Survey 68th Round Employment and Unemployment Survey 2011-12

This method for splitting GSDP into rural and urban components is proposed by the Consultation Paper. It utilises ES 2010-11 for obtaining GVAPW and EUS 2011-12 for obtaining the estimated number of workers (EW), by compilation categories, for both Rural and Urban sectors. For each sector, the GVA by compilation categories is computed by multiplying GVAPW and Estimated Workers for the respective category. The percentage shares of Urban GVA in Total (Rural + Urban) GVA are then obtained. These shares are applied on compilation category-wise GSDP to obtain Estimated Urban Maharashtra GDP by Compilation Categories.

Method 2: CSO NAS Method for estimating Rural and Urban National replicated at the State level

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has adopted an allocation procedure in which economic activity-wise net value added (NVA) is allocated between rural and urban using certain indicators available with a rural/urban break-up for each economic activity. The indicators include results from various surveys, the labour input method, and administrative records which provide a rural/urban breakup of the indicators.

We endeavour to replicate this national-level methodology at the state, to obtain a rural/urban breakup of the Maharashtra GSDP. The computation using this approach is yet to be carried out, as we seek clarifications regarding the methodology and explore rural/urban data availability at the state level.

Step 3: Listing Urban Maharashtra GSDP by Compilation Categories

Step 4: Calculating GVAPW (using ES 2010-11) and Estimated Workers (using EUS 2011-
            12) by Compilation Categories, for Urban Maharashtra and Thane City

Step 5:

  • By LI method, calculating Urban Maharashtra Gross Value Added (GVA) from Urban Maharashtra GVAPW and Urban Maharashtra Estimated Workers, and,
  • Calculating Thane City GVA from
    • Urban Maharashtra GVAPW and Thane City Estimated Workers (UM Method)
    • Thane City GVAPW and Thane City Estimated Workers (TC Method)

Step 6: Calculating the share of Thane City GVA in Urban Maharashtra GVA by  Compilation Categories and applying the shares to Estimated Urban Maharashtra GSDP, to obtain the Estimated Thane City Gross City Domestic Product (GCDP) by  Compilation Categories

Step 7: Summing Estimated Thane City GCDP by Compilation Categories from Step 6 to get overall Thane City GCDP

This study estimates Thane GCDP for the years 2011-12 to 2017-18, using the UM+LI Method.

Note:

  • While the TC+LI Method captures Thane city’s spatial economic differential, it suffers from the issue of inadequate compilation of category-wise samples. To address this, it is recommended to use pooled (State + Central) samples. We are in the process of obtaining this data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Maharashtra.

To establish a concordance between the CSO classification of economic activities used in GSDP, and the NIC codes used in National Sample Surveys, we have formulated certain compilation categories for computation (Table 2).

S.No.Compilation CategoryNIC-2008 Sections
1Agriculture, Forestry & FishingA
2Mining & QuarryingB
3ManufacturingC
4ConstructionF
5Electricity, Water, GasD + E
6Railways, Transport, StorageH
7CommunicationJ
8Trade, Hotels, RestaurantsG + I
9Banking & InsuranceK
10Real estateL
11Public administrationO
12Other ServicesM + N + P + Q + R + S + T + U
Table 2: Compilation categories for estimation of Thane GCDP and their corresponding NIC-2008 Sections

Limitations and Scope for Replicability

  • One of the most important limitations of this exercise will be the availability of adequate (sample) and periodic data. However, the NSS rounds take cities with more than 1 million population as per Census 2001 in any district as a separate stratum and for these cities, estimates can be generated. For other cities, as they fall into general urban stratum, it will be tough to compute and estimate their figures. The availability of periodic data is another challenge (NSS data which are useful here often comes once in five years), coupled with the constraints of comparability and consistency with NAS estimates.
  • Another limitation of this method (UM Method) will be the assumption of equal GVAPW for any given economic sector across the state (by rural and urban sector). The differences of spatial productivity across cities can be captured and apportioned by having some assumptions and index, however, it might not explain the actual scenario by each economic sector.
  • To tackle issues due to inadequate sample size, pooled sample data needs to be procured and utilised.
  • The CSO NAS methodology for estimating rural and urban income at the national level needs to be replicated at the state level, for which a white paper on the methodology should be released by CSO.
  • The method suggested here has a lot of scope for replicability for other cities (million-plus cities as per Census 2001) as the estimates of rural and urban income are calculated based upon the standard method suggested by NAS and the share of urban GVA of a city to the total urban GVA (using labour input method) is applied to estimated urban GSDP. This will ensure comparability and consistency.

Summary of Findings

  1. About Thane: An Economic Profile

This section gives an insight into the demographic, spatial and socio-economic context of Thane City, which is a part of the Mumbai Metropolitan Region of the Maharashtra State. The city had a population of around 1.8 million in 2011. In most of the parameters of development, Thane city fares at the list of top cities among 4302 cities in India. Table 3 highlights some key demographic details of Thane from the Census 2011. Figure 1 describes the trend of the decadal growth rate of the population of Thane.

Figure 1: Decadal Growth Rate of Population for Thane City, 1971-1981 to 2021-2031
Figure 2: Thane as a Key Economic Node for MMRDA (Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority)
Population18.4 lakhs
Decadal Growth Rate of Population (2001-2011)45.86%
Area128 km2
Population Density14361
Scheduled Caste Population %6.84
Scheduled Tribe Population %2.32
Literacy Rate89.41
Sex Ratio888
Child Sex Ratio908
Source: Census 2011
Table 3: Demographic details of Thane City, 2011
Broad Industry DivisionMaharashtraUrban MaharashtraThane DistrictThane City
Primary26.02.52.20.8
Secondary17.022.024.320.5
Tertiary57.075.573.579.7
Total100100100100
Number (in lakhs)61.3728.434.390.74
Source: 6th Economic Census
* includes Mumbai City + Mumbai Suburban
Table 4: Percentage Share of Establishments by Broad Industry Division, 2013-14
  CategoryMaleFemalePersons
NumberPercentageNumberPercentageNumberPercentage
Workers4.9370.81.5222.96.4547.4
Unemployed0.243.40.081.20.322.3
Not in the Labour Force1.8025.85.0575.96.8450.3
Total6.96100.06.64100.013.61100.0
WPR (per 1000)708229474
Source: NSS Employment and Unemployment Survey, 2011-12. Numbers are in Lakhs.
Table 5: Estimated Number and Percentage of Persons Working, Unemployed and Not In Labour Force (ages 15 years and above) by Sex for Thane City, 2011-12
Compilation CategoryUrban MaharashtraThane DistrictThane City
Manufacturing25.748.712.6
Electricity, Water, Gas*
Railways, Transport, Storage5.65.310.4
Communication0.60.70.4
Trade, Hotels, Restaurants44.331.348.5
Banking & Insurance1.00.81.0
Real estate0.80.50.4
Other Services21.912.726.7
Total100.0100.0100.0
Total GVA (in ₹ crore)63849.715225.75042.8
Source: Computed by Authors using NSS Enterprise Survey 2010-11
Note: ES 2010-11 does not include Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing, Mining and Quarrying, Construction, and Public Administration sectors
* Electricity, Water, Gas
Table 6: Percentage Shares of GVA by Compilation Categories, 2010-11

Table 4 provides the shares of broad industry divisions in Thane city establishments, with figures for Maharashtra, Urban Maharashtra and Thane District, for comparison. As expected, Thane city has about 80 per cent share of the tertiary sector. Table 5 focuses on the workforce and unemployment figures for Thane city, by sex, for the age group of 15 years and above. Finally, Table 6 gives an idea of the output from Thane enterprises, for sectors covered in NSS 2010-11. Figures for Urban Maharashtra and Thane District are given as well.

Figures 3, 4, 5 and 6 stem from the spatial mapping component of the study. All four figures have been prepared by the research team using Thane city ward-wise data from Census 2011.

Figure 3: Ward-wise Female WPR, Thane, 2011
Figure 4: Ward-wise Male WPR, Thane,2011   
Figure 5: Ward-wise Access to Banking, Thane, 2011   
Figure 6: Ward-wise Literacy Rate, Thane, 2011

Review of Methods for Calculating City GDP

  1. Simple Methods

There are some simple methods (for estimating GDP at the city level). The summary of outputs from applying these methods on data[1] from ES 2010-11, Census 2011, Maharashtra GSDP 2011-12 and EUS 2011-12 are given below in Table 7.


[1] Thane City Population = 1.84 million (2011 Census); Thane District Population = 11.1 million; Maharashtra Population = 114.2 million (2011 Census); Maharashtra GSDP = ₹ 11.70 lakh crores (2011/12 CSO)

MethodThane City GDP
Apportioning using City PopulationUsing State Population and State Domestic Product₹ 18,851 Crore
Using District Population and District Domestic Product₹ 26,903 Crore
Apportioning Using Sectoral EmploymentAssuming distinct Worker Population Ratios for City and State₹ 30,873 Crore
Assuming an equal Worker Population Ratio for City and State₹ 36,118 Crore
Using Gross Value Added Per Worker and No. of Workers by NIC Compilation Categories₹ 6718 Crore
Table 7: Summary of Outputs from Simple Methods of estimating city-level GDP, 2011-12

2. UM+LI and TC+LI methods

RegionGross Domestic Product 2011-12 (in ₹ crore)Notes
Maharashtra#1170120 
Urban Maharashtra^ (LI Method)69453359.3% of Maharashtra GSDP
Urban Maharashtra^ (CSO NAS Method)To be computed
Thane District+15819013.5% of Maharashtra’s GDP
Thane City(UM Method + LI Method)26037.83.1% of Estimated UM GDP
Thane City(UM Method + CSO NAS Method)To be computed
Thane City(TC Method + LI Method)22927.92.8% of Estimated UM GDP
Thane City(TC Method + CSO NAS Method)To be computed
From Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2014-15 + From District Domestic Product of Maharashtra 2004-05 to 2013-14 ^ Computed by authors 
Table 8: Summary of GDP values obtained for Thane City, Thane District
  1. CSO NAS Methodology for Estimating Rural and Urban Income

The last year for which economic activity-wise rural/urban breakup of value added is available is 2011-12 (year of base change). We are trying to communicate with CSO to try and replicate this methodology at the state level, for a refined approach to GCDP estimation. However, we have not been able to reach a resolution and further seek to attempt the same.

Measurement and Analysis of Thane GCDP 2011-12 to 2017-18

As discussed in earlier sections, the TC+LI method at present is hindered by issues of inadequate sample sizes. Hence, this study utilises the UM+LI method for measuring and analysing Thane GCDP for the years 2011-12 to 2017-18. The data used for computation in this section is obtained from the Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2018-19 from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Maharashtra.

Compilation Category2011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Mining & Quarrying0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
Manufacturing4568.55237.06020.76350.26924.67001.77630.8
Construction1528.71593.41756.21919.71905.62063.42302.6
Electricity, Water, Gas350.8382.8527.7512.0541.3518.3677.4
Railways, Transport, Storage1566.21831.51897.72121.42318.52481.42756.8
Communication812.1920.41110.51261.91484.01478.21459.6
Trade, Hotels, Restaurants3063.63707.13954.94314.34531.05143.95806.8
Banking & Insurance3759.24118.24776.65234.45686.15844.36555.9
Real estate9373.211026.613053.415341.717266.819841.022389.8
Public administration1149.11275.61410.01523.61670.31870.22097.8
Other Services3716.74369.05069.95933.86778.17859.19096.0
Total29888.134461.639577.644512.949106.454101.560773.5
% of Maharashtra GSVA2.612.662.692.802.852.852.89
% of estimated Urban Maharashtra GSVA3.653.693.733.803.833.913.92
Table 9: Estimated Thane City GVA by Compilation Categories, using UM + LI Method (₹ crore)

Note: The compilation categories used in this calculation would require clarification from the DES regarding sub-categorisation, for final confirmation.

Compilation CategoryGVA (₹ crore)% Share
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing0.00.0
Mining & Quarrying0.00.0
Manufacturing7630.812.6
Construction2302.63.8
Electricity, Water, Gas677.41.1
Railways, Transport, Storage2756.84.5
Communication1459.62.4
Trade, Hotels, Restaurants5806.89.6
Banking & Insurance6555.910.8
Real estate22389.836.8
Public administration2097.83.5
Other Services9096.015.0
Total60773.5100.0
% of Maharashtra GSVA2.89
% of estimated Urban Maharashtra GSVA3.92
* The estimates may be lower due to inadequate sample size for Thane City, for instance, for Electricity, Water and Gas, there are no entries. They can be recomputed using pooled sample data.
Table 10: Estimated Percentage Shares of Compilation Categories in Thane City GVA
Figure 7: Shares of Compilation Categories in Estimated Thane City GVA, 2011-12 to 2017-18 (UM+LI Method)
Figure 8: Percentage Shares of Compilation Categories in Estimated Thane City GVA for 2017-18 (UM+LI Method)
Figure 9: Annual Growth Rate of GVA of Thane City by Compilation Categories

Highlights from the findings for Thane City GDP Estimation (2011-12 to 2017-18)

  • Thane City makes up 1.64% of the State population and 3.62% of the population of Urban Maharashtra.
  • The estimated GVA (by UM+LI method) for Thane City for FY 2017-18 is ₹ 60773 crores. Thane City accounts for 2.89% of Maharashtra’s income and 3.92% of Urban Maharashtra’s, as per this estimate.
  • The estimated Gross City Domestic Product (GCDP) for Thane City, FY 2017-18, would, therefore, be ₹ 69695 crores (with GSDP taken from Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2018-19, Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Maharashtra). Real estate (37%), manufacturing (13%), banking and insurance (11%), trade, hotel & restaurants (10%), and other services (15%) sector constitute the majority of these.
  • Thane City’s per capita GDP (as estimated from this study) is over ₹ 3 lakh – almost double that of the state.
  • The own-tax to GDP ratio for the city stands at about 2.46%. The actual expenditure of Thane Municipal Corporation in the FY 2018-19 was ₹ 3642 crores.
  • Thane City’s estimated annual growth rate of GVA has consistently been around 2 percentage points higher than that of Urban Maharashtra and the state.
Figure 10: Annual Growth Rate of GVA

Conclusion

This paper attempts to review existing methodologies of estimating GDP at the city level and to examine the scope and feasibility of adapting them to the Indian context, by taking the case of Thane city. It has explored various approaches to estimating City GDP or GCDP. These include simple methods of apportioning the GSDP to the city by applying an appropriate weight such as population or employment, as well as methods proposed by the Consultation Paper by MoHUA, with modifications. Limitations and the scope of replicability of such an exercise have also been outlined.

This study provides a basic economic profile of Thane city by utilising secondary official data sources, to establish a context. The profile includes a demographic outline, details of workforce participation and a compilation category-wise establishments and value-added. Outputs of the spatial mapping component of this study have also been provided, with a ward-wise visualisation of indicators such as Worker Population Ratio, Access to Banking and Literacy Rate.

The methodologies used for GCDP estimation in this study are those based on simple calculations as well as more rigorous methods – namely UM+LI and TC+LI methods – based on data at the granular level. The CSO NAS methodology for estimating rural and urban national income could also be replicated at the state level, after seeking clarifications from CSO. A part of the estimation remains, as there is an unavailability of the required pooled sample data (centre and state sample) from the DES. Further computation would be carried out as and when the pooled sample data would be obtained. The methodology would also be refined and finalised after requisite clarifications and feedback from concerned stakeholders.

The estimated Gross City Domestic Product (GCDP) for Thane City, FY 2017-18, stood at ₹ 69695 crores. Real estate (37%), manufacturing (13%), banking and insurance (11%), trade, hotel & restaurants (10%), and other services (15%) sector constitute majority of these. Thane City accounts for 2.89% of Maharashtra’s income and 3.92% of that of Urban Maharashtra’s, as per this estimate. Thane City’s per capita GDP  is over ₹ 3 lakh – almost double that of the state. Thane City’s estimated annual growth rate of GVA has consistently been around 2 percentage points higher than that of Urban Maharashtra and the state.

Overall, this study pioneers the organisation of the structures and processes of estimation and enables evidence-backed policymaking and planning. This becomes instrumental for the growth and development of cities and in ascending towards the vision of a US$ 5 trillion economy of ‘New India’.

Acknowledgements

This paper is an abridged version of the project “Estimation of City-Level GDP for Thane” funded by Thane Smart City Limited and CRISIL, whom the authors would like to thank. The authors are grateful to Sameer Unhale, Abhay Kantak, Christine D’sa and Suraj Iyengar. The authors would also like to thank P. C. Mohanan, Prof Amitabh Kundu, Prof G. C. Manna, Prof. Shipra Maitra, Prof Sukhadeo Thorat, Prof Sandip Sarkar, Dr Arvind Kumar, Ajaya Naik, Nidish Nair, Dr Soumyadip Chattopadhyay, Dr Nitin Tagade, Dr Balwant Singh Mehta, Kunal Kumar, Dr Abhay Pethe, Dr Manoranjan Pattanayak, Dr Akhilesh K. Sharma, Rupali Thote, Kumar Sundaram, Reena Nagar, Dr Simi Mehta, Mahesh Talreja and Ritika Gupta for their insightful comments. They also express their gratitude to Dr Ismail Haque, Dr Md. Safikul Islam, Dr Rahul Ranjan and Samar R. for their assistance. The authors are grateful to the organisers and secretariat of the 38th Annual Conference of the Indian Association for Research in National Income and Wealth (IARNIW) – Mr Amit Kamal, Ms Kanchana V. Ghosh, Ms Kratika Mittal, Ms Neha Kalra Asnani, and others. This paper was presented at the conference and the authors are thankful for the insightful comments by the conference participants. This research has been carried out by the Generation Alpha Data Centre (Gen-α DC) under the IMPRI Impact and Policy Research Institute, New Delhi.


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